Seven weeks to polling day and the poll average moves a tenth at a time

With 48 days to go until the general election on 29 November, Su Momento's poll average ends the week almost where it began. The PP remains first on 32.5%, followed by the PSOE on 26.5% and Vox on 18.8%, and none of the eight parties in the average has moved by more than two tenths in seven days. A week with a steady pulse which, in electoral statistics, is also information.

The average, dated 11 October, brings together 35 polls from 17 pollsters, the most recent from 9 October, selected from the 476 listed in the table. It is weighted by date and sample size and corrected for each pollster's bias; the CIS is kept separate. Full details are on the polls page.

What has moved, a little

The biggest weekly change in Su Momento's average belongs to the PSOE, up two tenths. Vox and Junts each gain a tenth; PP, Sumar, ERC and SALF each lose one, and Podemos repeats its 3.4% exactly. All these fluctuations fall within the average's own intervals: the PP's, for example, runs from 32.1% to 32.9%, and the PSOE's from 26.1% to 26.9%.

On those figures, the gap between the top two stands at 6 points, according to the average. Widening the lens to 30 days, the PP is up a tenth, PSOE and Vox two each, Sumar down two and SALF three, the largest monthly movement in the table. Not even that amounts to a shift the chart lets you make out with the naked eye.

What has not moved

The most stable feature of the landscape is its distance from 2023. According to the official results of that election, from the Ministerio del Interior, the PP won 33.1% and the average now puts it 0.6 points lower; the PSOE took 31.7% and appears 5.2 points lower. Vox, on 12.4% in 2023, stands 6.4 points higher, and Sumar, which won 12.3%, is 6.3 points lower.

Among the regionally based parties, ERC holds close to its 1.9% of 2023, a tenth higher in the average, and Junts, which won 1.6%, appears two tenths lower. Podemos and SALF have no 2023 result of their own to compare against in these data, so their only point of reference is the poll series.

The CIS, which is shown separately and does not form part of the average, published its latest barometer on 4 September with a sample of 4,042 interviews. In it, the PSOE scores 31%, the PP 25.5%, Vox 16.6%, Sumar 5.7% and Podemos 3.7%. The order of the top two is the reverse of the average's, a discrepancy of some standing by now, which is why it is presented separately.

The projection, with its margins

Translated into seats with 10,000 simulations, Su Momento's projection puts the PP on a median of 134, with a 90% range between 120 and 150; the PSOE on 107, between 91 and 120; and Vox on 65, between 54 and 80. In 2023 they won 137, 121 and 33 seats respectively. The width of those ranges is a reminder that a point of vote share well or badly distributed across provinces can be worth several deputies.

Lower down the table the margins are proportionally larger. ERC would have a median of 8 seats (between 3 and 13), Sumar 7 (between 4 and 12, compared with 31 in 2023), EH Bildu 7 (between 2 and 10), Junts 6 (between 1 and 9) and PNV 5 (between 1 and 7). These are figures on which the electoral system, with its small constituencies, acts as a magnifying glass.

By bloc, and with an absolute majority at 176 of 350 seats, the projection estimates a median of 200 for PP and Vox, with a range between 187 and 216 and a 99.8% probability of a majority. For PSOE, Sumar and Podemos it estimates a median of 116, with a range between 101 and 131 and a 0% probability of a majority. The methodological note itself cautions: the projection is based on the average and on the 2023 results by province, and is not a prediction.

Seven weeks remain, ample time for many more polls; this week, it seems, did not run to many surprises. Anyone wishing to try out other distributions can do so in the simulator, and the dates remaining until 29 November are in the calendar.