Polls and projection

Polls and seat projection

A weighted average of every published poll, a province by province seat projection from 10,000 simulations and a coalition calculator. No opinion: only the data and how it is computed.

Data as of October 5, 2026

Latest poll: October 3, 2026

29 polls in the 60 day window, 468 collected since 2023

How it is computed

Poll average

Estimated vote share in percent and change over the last 30 days.

PP
32.6%
+0.5 30 days32.1 a 33.0
PSOE
26.3%
−0.1 30 days25.9 a 26.7
Vox
18.8%
+0.3 30 days18.4 a 19.2
Sumar
6.1%
0.0 30 days5.7 a 6.5
Podemos
3.4%
+0.1 30 days3.0 a 3.8

EH Bildu1.40.0
ERC2.10.0
BNG0.90.0
AA0.90.0
PNV1.0−0.1
Junts1.30.0
CC0.40.0
UPN0.20.0
Aliança.cat1.1−0.2Few pollsters
SALF1.8−0.1

* Few pollsters

Poll average

How the average has moved

Since January 2025. The vertical tick at the end of each line is the 90 % interval of the current average; the dots are individual polls.

Average90 % band

Tap or drag across the chart to read the values for each date.

CIS. The CIS is shown as its own dashed series and is not part of the average. It uses a different estimation method from the other pollsters and, since 2023, its estimates have given the PSOE several points more than the average of the other polls.

10,000 simulations

Seat projection

Median and 90 % interval from 10,000 simulations. The dot is the median; the bar is the range that holds 90 % of the outcomes.

Median90 % interval2023

PP134119 a 150
PSOE10590 a 118
Vox6553 a 79
ERC84 a 13
Sumar74 a 13
EH Bildu72 a 11
Junts51 a 8
PNV51 a 7
AA41 a 5
Aliança.cat30 a 7
BNG20 a 6
Podemos20 a 5
CC10 a 3
UPN10 a 2

176

Hemicycle of the median

Sumar 7
Podemos 2
EH Bildu 7
ERC 8
BNG 2
PSOE 105
AA 4
PNV 5
Junts 5
CC 1
UPN 1
PP 134
Vox 65
Aliança.cat 3

The party medians add up to 349, not necessarily 350: each one is computed on its own.

Seats per province are provisional until the BOE publishes the annex of the election decree.

Who reaches 176?

What the simulations say. Not a certainty: it is how often each outcome happens in 10,000 repetitions with polling error.

More than 99 in 100
simulations
PP and Vox together reach an absolute majority
0 in 100
simulations
PP reaches 176 on its own
0 in 100
simulations
The 2023 investiture bloc reaches 176
98 in 100
simulations
PP is the largest party

A projection is not a prediction of certainty. It carries the usual polling error (about two points for the large parties) through to the provincial seat allocation. In 2023 the same method had 10 of 11 parties inside their interval; it missed the PSOE, which every poll underestimated.

176 / 350

Coalition calculator

Tap parties to add them up. The bar moves toward the 176 seats of an absolute majority.

Shortcuts

0seats of 350

Choose one or more parties.

Latest polls

The 30 most recent by fieldwork date. Estimated vote share and, when the pollster publishes them, seats.

Pollster	Fieldwork	Sample	PP	PSOE	Vox	Sumar	Podemos	SALF	ERC	Junts	EH Bildu	PNV	BNG	CC	UPN	AA	Aliança.cat
EM-AnalyticsElectomanía	2-3 Oct	8,171	31.3129	26.9106	19.469	6.312	3.43	1.70	2.08	1.14	1.47	1.16	1.02	0.30	0.21	1.13	·
SocioMétricaEl Español	1-3 Oct	1,000	33.4143	26.5106	18.162	5.36	3.12	2.20	2.28	1.25	1.37	1.06	0.92	0.61	0.21	·1	·
Data10Okdiario	2 Oct	1,000	34.0139	26.1110	18.664	5.25	4.34	1.40	1.97	1.56	1.48	0.84	1.02	0.30	0.21	0.50	·
WinstonArtículo 14	29 Sep-1 Oct	1,201	31.3135	24.9102	19.169	6.810	3.94	·0	·8	·6	·6	·6	·2	·1	·1	·	·
Ateneo del DatoelDiario.es	29 Sep-1 Oct	1,500	33.2135	27.5106	19.267	7.012	3.32	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·
Sigma DosEl Mundo	22 Sep-1 Oct	2,116	32.6140	25.6103	18.363	6.69	3.32	·	2.58	1.14	1.36	1.06	0.92	0.51	0.21	0.82	1.03
40dBPrisa	25-28 Sep	2,000	31.6	27.4	18.4	5.6	2.7	2.0	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·
SocioMétricaEl Español	24-26 Sep	1,200	33.9145	25.7107	18.062	5.75	3.32	2.00	2.08	1.24	1.47	0.94	1.02	0.61	0.21	1.02	·
EM-AnalyticsElectomanía	15-25 Sep	1,104	32.3134	25.3101	18.867	6.511	3.85	2.00	2.08	1.24	1.47	1.16	0.92	0.41	0.21	0.93	·
Celeste-TelOnda Cero	16-21 Sep	1,100	33.9147	25.4101	17.862	6.49	3.33	1.70	2.07	1.56	1.46	1.15	0.82	0.51	0.21	·	·
DYMHenneo	16-21 Sep	1,017	34.7146	26.3104	17.360	4.57	3.73	1.00	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·
EM-AnalyticsElectomanía	1-18 Sep	1,399	32.1131	25.6102	19.168	6.814	3.32	2.00	1.98	1.25	1.47	1.16	0.92	0.41	0.21	0.93	·
InvyMarklaSexta	7-11 Sep	1,200	33.7	26.8	18.6	6.1	3.3	1.8	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·
Target PointEl Debate	9-10 Sep	1,012	31.5136	25.6107	18.967	6.910	2.82	2.50	·	·4	·	·	·	·	·	·	·
EM-AnalyticsElectomanía	1-10 Sep	1,190	32.2132	25.4102	19.268	6.913	3.43	2.00	1.98	1.14	1.47	1.16	0.92	0.41	0.21	0.93	·
Hamalgama MétricaVozpópuli	1-8 Sep	1,000	33.6145	25.1101	19.367	5.67	3.83	1.60	1.98	1.45	1.36	0.94	0.82	0.51	0.21	·	·
CIS (Target Point)CIS	1-4 Sep	4,042	31.9139	26.8113	17.861	6.08	3.52	2.00	1.7	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·
CIS (Ateneo del Dato)CIS	1-4 Sep	4,042	29.5127	27.6112	17.665	6.812	3.92	1.80	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·
CISCIS	1-4 Sep	4,042	25.5	31.0	16.6	5.7	3.7	1.8	2.5	0.7	1.3	0.7	0.7	0.2	0.1	·	·
NC ReportLa Razón	1-3 Sep	1,000	34.5148	24.999	18.363	5.78	3.43	·	2.07	1.66	1.46	1.05	0.82	0.41	0.21	·	·
GAD3ABC	1-3 Sep	1,010	31.1133	26.1105	19.269	7.09	3.12	1.50	2.310	1.24	1.57	0.96	0.92	0.31	0.21	1.01	·
EM-AnalyticsElectomanía	15 Aug-3 Sep	1,284	32.0131	25.6102	19.268	6.712	3.65	1.80	1.98	1.14	1.47	1.16	1.02	0.41	0.21	1.03	·
40dBPrisa	31 Aug-2 Sep	2,000	32.4	27.6	17.8	5.7	2.8	2.2	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·
More in Common	24-28 Aug	2,144	28.7	27.0	20.3	6.6	3.6	2.3	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·
EM-AnalyticsElectomanía	15 Jul-28 Aug	1,197	32.3132	25.7102	19.066	6.412	3.65	2.00	1.98	1.14	1.47	1.16	1.03	0.41	0.21	1.03	·
Data10Okdiario	26-27 Aug	1,500	34.3145	25.4100	18.163	6.38	3.63	·	2.08	1.46	1.48	0.94	0.92	0.51	0.21	0.71	·
Sigma DosEl Mundo	20-26 Aug	2,173	33.1143	25.4101	17.961	6.610	2.81	·	2.48	1.14	1.26	1.06	0.82	0.51	0.21	0.82	1.04
Cluster17Agenda Pública	22-25 Aug	1,637	30.1	28.1	16.1	6.1	3.6	1.7	2.0	1.6	1.3	1.1	·	·	·	·	1.6
EM-AnalyticsElectomanía	1 Jul-21 Aug	1,211	32.0131	26.1103	19.068	6.411	3.55	2.00	1.98	1.14	1.47	1.26	1.02	0.41	0.21	1.03	·
EM-AnalyticsElectomanía	1 Jul-12 Aug	1,428	31.8130	26.2102	19.269	6.512	3.75	1.80	1.98	1.14	1.57	1.26	1.02	0.41	0.21	1.03	·

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Source: Wikipedia, Opinion polling for the 2026 Spanish general election (CC BY-SA 4.0). See the full table on Wikipedia

Projection by province

Expected seats in each province (mean of the simulations) and the seat in play: who takes the last seat and who just misses it.

Barcelona32 seats
- Sumar 2.3
- Podemos 1.0
- ERC 4.8
- PSOE 10.8
- Junts 2.5
- PP 4.7
- Vox 3.9
- Aliança.cat 2.0
Seat in playVery close
PSOE takes the last seat; Junts is 0.10 points short
Cantabria5 seats
- PSOE 1.5
- PP 2.5
- Vox 1.0
Seat in playVery close
PP takes the last seat; PSOE is 0.10 points short
La Rioja4 seats
- PSOE 1.3
- PP 2.3
- Vox 0.4
Seat in playVery close
PP takes the last seat; Vox is 0.10 points short
Tarragona6 seats
- ERC 1.2
- PSOE 2.2
- Junts 0.4
- PP 1.0
- Vox 1.0
- Aliança.cat 0.2
Seat in playVery close
Junts takes the last seat; PSOE is 0.10 points short
Asturias7 seats
- PSOE 2.4
- PP 3.1
- Vox 1.4
Seat in playVery close
Vox takes the last seat; PSOE is 0.20 points short
Alacant/Alicante12 seats
- Sumar 0.4
- PSOE 3.5
- PP 5.0
- Vox 3.2
Seat in playVery close
PSOE takes the last seat; Sumar is 0.30 points short
Bizkaia8 seats
- Sumar 0.1
- EH Bildu 2.0
- PSOE 2.5
- PNV 2.4
- PP 1.1
Seat in playVery close
PNV takes the last seat; PSOE is 0.30 points short
Lleida4 seats
- ERC 1.1
- PSOE 1.3
- Junts 0.7
- PP 0.4
- Vox 0.1
- Aliança.cat 0.5
Seat in playVery close
PP takes the last seat; Aliança.cat is 0.30 points short
Valladolid5 seats
- PSOE 1.5
- PP 2.4
- Vox 1.1
Seat in playVery close
PSOE takes the last seat; PP is 0.40 points short
Las Palmas8 seats
- PSOE 2.9
- CC 0.2
- PP 2.6
- Vox 2.1
- NC-bc 0.2
Seat in playClose
PP takes the last seat; NC-bc is 0.50 points short
Gipuzkoa6 seats
- EH Bildu 2.5
- PSOE 1.7
- PNV 1.5
- PP 0.3
Seat in playClose
EH Bildu takes the last seat; PNV is 0.60 points short
Segovia3 seats
- PSOE 0.9
- PP 1.6
- Vox 0.5
Seat in playClose
PP takes the last seat; Vox is 0.60 points short

v1.0.0

How it is computed

Average. Every national poll published on Wikipedia since July 2023 counts, except the CIS, third party re-estimates of CIS data and party commissioned polls. A poll weighs more the more recent it is (12 day half life) and the larger its sample. Inside the 60 day window each pollster counts once and its mean bias over the last year is removed.

Seats. Starting from the 2023 result in each province, a proportional swing is applied until the national sum matches the average. Regional parties only move inside their territory. This is then repeated 10,000 times with national errors, a common left-right swing and provincial noise, and seats are allocated by D'Hondt in each province with the 3 % threshold.

Read the full methodMethod 1.0.0, generated on October 5, 2026

Polls: Wikipedia, CC BY-SA 4.0. 2023 results: Ministerio del Interior. Seats per province: BOE.

Back-test on 23 July 2023

	17-jul	23-J
PP	140	137
PSOE	104	121
Vox	37	33
Sumar	35	31
ERC	7	7
Junts	7	7
EH Bildu	6	6
PNV	6	5

The same code, with the polls available up to 17 July 2023 and the 2019 results as the base, had 10 of 11 parties inside their 90 % interval: PP 140 projected against 137 real, Vox 37 against 33, Sumar 35 against 31. The PSOE (104 against 121) fell outside because every poll missed it that year.